This year marks the 150th anniversary of the 1868 Hayward Earthquake M 6.8. In the next 30 years, there is a 1 in 3 chance of a major earthquake occurring on the Hayward Fault. It is expected that strong ground motion from a Hayward fault earthquake will cause significant damage to the built environment and loss of life. Artie Rogers in his recent paper models a scenario for a M7.0 earthquake along the Hayward fault with rupture initiating near Richmond, California.
For more details see the LLNL News release.
See a movie of the simulation using SW4 (below) and Artie Rogers on ABC News.