[cig-commits] commit: Added new references file (pylith.bib is obsolete). More work on introduction.
Mercurial
hg at geodynamics.org
Thu Aug 18 13:34:30 PDT 2011
changeset: 48:2e5e57c50da4
tag: tip
user: Brad Aagaard <baagaard at usgs.gov>
date: Thu Aug 18 13:34:25 2011 -0700
files: faultRup.tex makefile references.bib
description:
Added new references file (pylith.bib is obsolete). More work on introduction.
diff -r 9d86546778bc -r 2e5e57c50da4 faultRup.tex
--- a/faultRup.tex Tue Aug 16 11:23:11 2011 -0700
+++ b/faultRup.tex Thu Aug 18 13:34:25 2011 -0700
@@ -54,10 +54,10 @@ second associated with slip at a point d
second associated with slip at a point during earthquake rupture to
thousands of years of strain accumulation between earthquakes. The
complexity of dealing with the many physical processes operating over
-this vast range of scales generally leads most researchers to
-focus on a narrow space-time window in order to isolate just one or a few
-processes; the limited spatial and temporal coverage of observations also
-justifies this narrow focus.
+this vast range of scales generally leads most researchers to focus on
+a narrow space-time window in order to isolate just one or a few
+processes; the limited spatial and temporal coverage of observations
+also justifies this narrow focus.
Researchers have recognized for some time, though, that interseismic
deformation and fault interactions influence earthquake rupture
@@ -65,26 +65,33 @@ postseismic deformation. In most cases o
postseismic deformation. In most cases one simplifies some portion of
the process to expedite the modeling results of another portion. For
example, studies of slow deformation associated with interseismic and
-postseismic behavior often approximate dynamic rupture behavior with the static
-coseismic slip [CITE SOME PAPERS]. Likewise, studies of radid deformation
-associated with earthquake rupture propagation often approximate the
-loading of the crust via simplistic assumptions about the stress field
-at the beginning of a rupture [CITE SOME PAPERS]. Earthquake
+postseismic behavior often approximate dynamic rupture behavior with
+the static coseismic slip
+\cite{Reilinger:etal:2000,Pollitz:etal:2001,Langbein:etal:2006,Chlieh:etal:2007}.
+Likewise, studies of radid deformation associated with earthquake
+rupture propagation often approximate the loading of the crust via
+simplistic assumptions about the stress field at the beginning of a
+rupture
+\cite{Aagaard:etal:BSSA:2001,Peyrat:etal:2001,Oglesby:Day:2001,Dunham:Archuleta:2004}. Earthquake
simulators, which attempt to model multiple earthquake cycles,
simplify not only the fault loading and rupture propagation but also
the physical properties in order to make the calculations tractable
-[CITE SOME PAPERS].
+\cite{Ward:1992,Rundle:etal:2006,Pollitz:Schwartz:2008,Dieterich:Richards-Dinger:2010}.
Recently, several studies have attempted to examine a broader
space-time window in order to remove simplifying assumptions and more
accurately capture the complex interactions over the earthquake
cycle. [ADD EXAMPLES, Lapusta, Duan/Oglesby, Kaneko].
+\citeN{Duan:Oglesby:2005}
+\citeN{Chen:Lapusta:2009}
+\citeN{Kaneko:etal:????}
+
Collectively, these studies suggest a set of desirable features for
models of the earthquake cycle in order to capture both the slow
deformation associated with interseismic behavior and the rapid
-deformation associated with earthquake rupture propagation. These include
-the general capabilities of modeling elasticity with elastic,
+deformation associated with earthquake rupture propagation. These
+include the general capabilities of modeling elasticity with elastic,
viscoelastic, and viscoelastoplastic deformation, as well as slip on
faults via either prescribed ruptures or spontaneous ruptures
controlled by a fault constitutive model. Additionally, a model might
@@ -113,10 +120,10 @@ conditions and rupture propgation simula
conditions and rupture propgation simulations using absorbing
boundaries to truncate the domains. However, these features constitute
a small fraction of the code. The primary different between the two
-types of simulations is the time integration scheme, with an
-implicit scheme used in the quasi-static simulations and an explicit
-scheme used in the dynamic simulations; this also results in using
-different solvers as we will discuss later.
+types of simulations is the time integration scheme, with an implicit
+scheme used in the quasi-static simulations and an explicit scheme
+used in the dynamic simulations; this also results in using different
+solvers as we will discuss later.
Implementing slip on the potentially nonplanar fault surface
differentiates these types of problems from many other elasticity
@@ -172,7 +179,7 @@ and verification of its implementation u
\end{acknowledgments}
% ------------------------------------------------------------------
-\bibliography{pylith}
+\bibliography{references}
\iftwocolumn % 2 columns
\end{multicols}
diff -r 9d86546778bc -r 2e5e57c50da4 makefile
--- a/makefile Tue Aug 16 11:23:11 2011 -0700
+++ b/makefile Thu Aug 18 13:34:25 2011 -0700
@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@ sourceroot = kinrup
-sourceroot = kinrup
+sourceroot = faultRup
fig_dirs = figs
diff -r 9d86546778bc -r 2e5e57c50da4 references.bib
--- /dev/null Thu Jan 01 00:00:00 1970 +0000
+++ b/references.bib Thu Aug 18 13:34:25 2011 -0700
@@ -0,0 +1,615 @@
+ at string{SRL = "Seismological Research Letters"}
+ at string{GRL = "Geophysical Research Letters"}
+ at string{BSSA = "Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America"}
+ at string{PAGEOPH = "Pure and Applied Geophysics"}
+ at string{JGR = "Journal of Geophysical Research"}
+ at string{JGR-SE = "Journal of Geophysical Research - Solid Earth"}
+ at string{GJI = "Geophysical Journal International"}
+ at string{G3 = "Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems"}
+
+
+ at Article{Aagaard:etal:BSSA:2001,
+ author = {Aagaard, Brad T. and Heaton, Thomas H. and Hall, John F.},
+ title = {Dynamic earthquake ruptures in the presence of
+ lithostatic normal stresses: Implications for
+ Friction Models and Heat Production},
+ journal = BSSA,
+ year = 2001,
+ volume = 91,
+ number = 6,
+ pages = {1765--1796},
+ month = dec
+}
+
+ at Article{Chen:Lapusta:2009,
+ author = {Chen, T. and Lapusta, N.},
+ title = {Scaling of small repeating earthquakes explained by
+ interaction of seismic and aseismic slip in a rate
+ and state fault model},
+ journal = JGR-SE,
+ year = 2009,
+ volume = 114,
+ number = {B01311},
+ doi = {10.1029/2008JB005749},
+ abstract = {Because of short recurrence times and known
+ locations, small repeating earthquakes present a
+ rare predictable opportunity for detailed field
+ observations. They are used to study fault creeping
+ velocities, earthquake nucleation, stress drops, and
+ other aspects of tectonophysics, earthquake
+ mechanics, and seismology. An intriguing observation
+ about repeating earthquakes is their scaling of
+ recurrence time with seismic moment, which is
+ significantly different from the scaling based on a
+ simple conceptual model of circular ruptures with
+ stress drop independent of seismic moment and no
+ aseismic slip. Here we show that a model of
+ repeating earthquakes based on laboratory-derived
+ rate and state friction laws reproduces the observed
+ scaling. In the model, a small fault patch governed
+ by steady state velocity-weakening friction is
+ surrounded by a much larger velocity-strengthening
+ region. Long-term slip behavior of the fault is
+ simulated using a methodology that fully accounts
+ for both aseismic slip and inertial effects of
+ occasional seismic events. The model results in
+ repeating earthquakes with typical stress drops and
+ sizes comparable with observations. For a fixed set
+ of friction parameters, the observed scaling is
+ reproduced by varying the size of the
+ velocity-weakening patch. In simulations, a
+ significant part of slip on the velocity-weakening
+ patches is accumulated aseismically, even though the
+ patches also produce seismic events. The proposed
+ model supplies a laboratory-based framework for
+ interpreting the wealth of observations about
+ repeating earthquakes, provides indirect evidence
+ that rate and state friction acts on natural faults,
+ and has important implications for possible
+ scenarios of slip partition into seismic and
+ aseismic parts.}
+}
+
+
+ at Article{Chlieh:etal:2007,
+ author = {Chlieh, M. and Avouac, J.-P. and Hjorleifsdottir1,
+ V. and Song, R.-R.~A. and Ji, C. and Sieh, K. and
+ Sladen, A. and Herbert, H. and Prawirodirdjo, L. and
+ Bock, Y. and Galetzka, J.},
+ title = {Coseismic Slip and Afterslip of the Great {Mw} 9.15
+ {Sumatra}–{Andaman} Earthquake of 2004},
+ journal = BSSA,
+ year = {2007},
+ volume = {97},
+ number = {1A},
+ pages = {S152--S173},
+ month = jan,
+ doi = {10.1785/0120050631},
+ abstract = {We determine coseismic and the first-month postseismic
+ deformation associated with the Sumatra–Andaman
+ earthquake of 26 December 2004 from near- field
+ Global Positioning System (GPS) surveys in
+ northwestern Sumatra and along the Nicobar-Andaman
+ islands, continuous and campaign GPS measurements
+ from Thailand and Malaysia, and in situ and remotely
+ sensed observations of the vertical motion of coral
+ reefs. The coseismic model shows that the Sunda
+ subduction megathrust ruptured over a distance of
+ about 1500 km and a width of less than 150 km,
+ releasing a total moment of 6.7–7.0 x 1022 N m,
+ equivalent to a magnitude Mw ~9.15. The latitudinal
+ distribution of released moment in our model has
+ three distinct peaks at about 4° N, 7° N, and 9° N,
+ which compares well to the latitudinal variations
+ seen in the seismic inversion and of the analysis of
+ radiated T waves. Our coseismic model is also
+ consistent with interpretation of normal modes and
+ with the amplitude of very-long-period surface
+ waves. The tsunami predicted from this model fits
+ relatively well the altimetric measurements made by
+ the JASON and TOPEX satellites. Neither slow nor
+ delayed slip is needed to explain the normal modes
+ and the tsunami wave. The near-field geodetic data
+ that encompass both coseismic deformation and up to
+ 40 days of postseismic deformation require that slip
+ must have continued on the plate interface after the
+ 500-sec-long seismic rupture. The postseismic
+ geodetic moment of about 2.4 x 1022 N m (Mw ~8.8) is
+ equal to about 30 ± 5\% of the coseismic moment
+ release. Evolution of postseismic deformation is
+ consistent with rate-strengthening frictional
+ afterslip.},
+}
+
+ at Article{Dieterich:Richards-Dinger:2010,
+ author = {Dieterich, J.~H. and Richards-Dinger, K.~B.},
+ title = {Earthquake Recurrence in Simulated Fault Systems},
+ journal = PAGEOPH,
+ year = {2010},
+ volume = {167},
+ number = {8--9},
+ pages = {1087--1104},
+ doi = {10.1007/s00024-010-0094-0},
+ abstract = {We employ a computationally efficient fault system
+ earthquake simulator, RSQSim, to explore effects of
+ earthquake nucleation and fault system geometry on
+ earthquake occurrence. The simulations incorporate
+ rate- and state-dependent friction, high-resolution
+ representations of fault systems, and quasi-dynamic
+ rupture propagation. Faults are represented as
+ continuous planar surfaces, surfaces with a random
+ fractal roughness, and discontinuous fractally
+ segmented faults. Simulated earthquake catalogs have
+ up to 106 earthquakes that span a magnitude range
+ from ∼M4.5 to M8. The seismicity has strong temporal
+ and spatial clustering in the form of foreshocks and
+ aftershocks and occasional large-earthquake
+ pairs. Fault system geometry plays the primary role
+ in establishing the characteristics of stress
+ evolution that control earthquake recurrence
+ statistics. Empirical density distributions of
+ earthquake recurrence times at a specific point on a
+ fault depend strongly on magnitude and take a
+ variety of complex forms that change with position
+ within the fault system. Because fault system
+ geometry is an observable that greatly impacts
+ recurrence statistics, we propose using fault system
+ earthquake simulators to define the empirical
+ probability density distributions for use in
+ regional assessments of earthquake probabilities.},
+}
+
+ at Article{Dunham:Archuleta:2004,
+ author = {Dunham, E.~M. and Archuleta, R.~J.},
+ title = {Evidence for a Supershear Transient during the 2002
+ {Denali} earthquake},
+ journal = BSSA,
+ year = {2004},
+ volume = {68},
+ number = {6B},
+ pages = {S256--S268},
+ month = dec,
+ doi = {10.1785/0120040616},
+ abstract = {Elastodynamic considerations suggest that the
+ acceleration of ruptures to supershear velocities is
+ accompanied by the release of Rayleigh waves along
+ the fault from the stress breakdown zone. These
+ waves generate a secondary slip pulse trailing the
+ rupture front, but manifest almost entirely in
+ ground motion perpendicular to the fault in the
+ near-source region. We construct a spontaneously
+ propagating rupture model exhibiting these features
+ and use it to explain ground motions recorded during
+ the 2002 Denali fault earthquake at pump station 10,
+ located 3 km from the fault. We show that the
+ initial pulses on both the fault normal and fault
+ parallel components are due to the supershear stress
+ release on the fault, whereas the later-arriving
+ fault normal pulses result from the trailing
+ subshear slip pulse on the fault.},
+}
+
+ at article{Duan:Oglesby:2005,
+ author = {Duan, Benchun and Oglesby, David~D.},
+ title = {Multicycle dynamics of nonplanar strike-slip faults},
+ journal = JGR,
+ volume = {110},
+ number = {B12},
+ year = {2005},
+ eid = {B03304},
+ doi = {10.1029/2004JB003298},
+ abstract = {We perform two-dimensional dynamic models of
+ strike-slip faults with a change in strike (a bend)
+ over multiple earthquake cycles to examine the
+ long-term effects of nonplanar fault geometry. A
+ viscoelastic model (a proxy for off-fault
+ deformation and tectonic loading) is introduced for
+ the interseismic process to avoid pathological
+ stress buildup around the bend. A finite element
+ method with an elastodynamic model is used to
+ simulate dynamic earthquake ruptures. We find that
+ stresses near the bend differ strongly from the
+ regional stress field and that the fault develops a
+ relatively steady state in which the stress level
+ and the event pattern on the fault are
+ stable. Reduced normal stress on the dilatational
+ side and increased normal stress on the compressive
+ side of the bend during dynamic ruptures result in
+ the bend serving as an initiation and/or a
+ termination point(s) for rupture. Typical events on
+ such a fault consist of two classes: unilateral
+ events that rupture only the favorable segment and
+ bilateral events that rupture the favorable segment
+ and part of or the entire unfavorable segment. In
+ the latter class of events, a time delay in rupture
+ around the bend results from a high yield stress on
+ the compressive side of the bend. Other effects of
+ the bent fault geometry include higher displacement
+ on the inward wall than on the outward wall, higher
+ slip on the more favorable segment than on the less
+ favorable segment, and a large slip velocity on the
+ compressive side of the bend.},
+}
+
+ at Article{Kaneko:Fialko:????,
+ author = {Kaneko, Y. and Fialko, Y.},
+ title = {Shallow slip deficit due to large strike-slip
+ earthquakes in dynamic rupture simulations with
+ elasto-plastic off-fault response},
+ journal = GJI,
+ year = {2011},
+ volume = {??},
+ number = {??},
+ pages = {??},
+ month = {??},
+ note = {in press},
+ doi = {10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05117.x},
+ abstract = {},
+}
+
+ at Article{Kaneko:etal:????,
+ author = {Kaneko, Y. and Ampuero, J.-P. and Lapusta, N.},
+ title = {Spectral-element simulations of long-term fault
+ slip: {Effect} of low-rigidity layers on
+ earthquake-cycle dynamics},
+ journal = JGR,
+ year = {2011},
+ volume = {??},
+ number = {??},
+ pages = {??},
+ month = {??},
+ note = {in press},
+ doi = {10.1029/2011JB008395},
+ abstract = {},
+}
+
+ at Article{Langbein:etal:2006,
+ author = {Langbein, J. and Murray, J.~R. and Snyder, H.~A.},
+ title = {Coseismic and Initial Postseismic Deformation from
+ the 2004 {Parkfield}, {California}, Earthquake,
+ Observed by Global Positioning System, Electronic
+ Distance Meter, Creepmeters, and Borehole
+ Strainmeters},
+ journal = BSSA,
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {96},
+ number = {4B},
+ pages = {S304--S320},
+ month = sep,
+ doi = {10.1785/0120050823},
+ abstract = {Global Positioning System (GPS), electronic distance
+ meter, creepmeter, and strainmeter measurements
+ spanning the M 6.0 Parkfield, California, earthquake
+ are examined. Using these data from 100 sec through
+ 9 months following the mainshock, the Omori’s law,
+ with rate inversely related to time, 1/tp and p
+ ranging between 0.7 and 1.3, characterizes the
+ time-dependent deformation during the postseismic
+ period; these results are consistent with creep
+ models for elastic solids. With an accurate function
+ of postseismic response, the coseismic displacements
+ can be estimated from the high-rate, 1-min sampling
+ GPS; and the coseismic displacements are
+ approximately 75\% of those estimated from the daily
+ solutions. Consequently, fault-slip models using
+ daily solutions overestimate coseismic slip. In
+ addition, at 2 months and at 8 months following the
+ mainshock, postseismic displacements are modeled as
+ slip on the San Andreas fault with a lower bound on
+ the moment exceeding that of the coseismic moment.},
+}
+
+ at article{Oglesby:Day:2001,
+ author = {Oglesby, D.~D. and Day, S.~M.},
+ title = {Fault geometry and the dynamics of the 1999
+ {Chi-Chi} {(Taiwan)} earthquake},
+ journal = BSSA,
+ volume = {91},
+ number = {5},
+ year = {2001},
+ month = oct,
+ pages = {1099--1111},
+ abstract = {The 1999 M 7.6 Chi-Chi (Taiwan) earthquake produced
+ a data set of unparalleled size and quality,
+ particularly in the near-source region where data
+ have been previously quite scarce. The large amount
+ of near-source data allows the verification of many
+ predictions of thrust-fault behavior for faults that
+ intersect the surface of the earth. Through rigorous
+ three-dimensional dynamic models of the Chi-Chi
+ earthquake, it can be shown that many aspects of the
+ observed near-source ground motion in this event are
+ direct effects of the asymmetrical dipping fault
+ geometry. These effects include the hanging wall
+ moving more than the footwall (with strongly peaked
+ velocities right at the fault trace) and a
+ transition from predominantly thrust motion in the
+ south of the fault to largely left-lateral motion in
+ the north. Building on the work of Oglesby and Day
+ (2001), the current work helps to delineate the
+ effects of fault geometry, nonuniform prestress, and
+ dynamic waves on the physics of the Chi-Chi
+ earthquake and dip-slip faults in general. In
+ particular, we find that a completely homogeneous
+ prestress pattern still fits the gross features of
+ the near-source ground motion quite
+ well. Additionally, the strike-slip component of
+ motion near the fault trace is seen to be a
+ combination of dynamic and static effects. Finally,
+ dynamic overshoot is seen to be much larger for
+ dip-slip faults than for otherwise identical
+ vertical faults. The results emphasize the necessity
+ of rigorous models that correctly account for both
+ the effects of fault geometry and dynamic waves in
+ the rupture and slip processes.},
+}
+
+ at article{Peyrat:etal:2001,
+ author = {Peyrat, Sophie and Olsen, Kim and Madariaga,
+ Ra\'{u}l},
+ title = {Dynamic modeling of the 1992 {Landers} earthquake},
+ journal = JGR-SE,
+ volume = {106},
+ number = {B11},
+ year = {2001},
+ month = nov # {~10},
+ pages = {26467--26482},
+ doi = {10.1029/2001JB000205},
+ abstract = {We have used observed band-pass filtered
+ accelerograms and a previously determined slip
+ distribution to invert for the dynamic rupture
+ propagation of the 1992 Landers earthquake. In our
+ simulations, dynamic rupture grows under the
+ simultaneous control of initial stress and rupture
+ resistance by friction, which we modeled using a
+ simple slip-weakening law. We used a simplified
+ Landers fault model where the fault segments were
+ combined into a single vertical, planar fault. By
+ trial and error we modified an initial stress field,
+ inferred from the kinematic slip distribution
+ proposed by Wald and Heaton [1994], until dynamic
+ rupture generated a rupture history and final slip
+ distribution that approximately matched those
+ determined by the kinematic inversion. We found that
+ rupture propagation was extremely sensitive to small
+ changes in the distribution of prestress and that a
+ delicate balance with energy release rate controls
+ the average rupture speed. For the inversion we
+ generated synthetic 0.5 Hz ground displacements
+ using an efficient Green's function propagator
+ method (AXITRA). This method enables us to propagate
+ the radiation generated by the dynamic rupture to
+ distances greater than those feasible using the
+ finite difference method. The dynamic model built by
+ trial-and-error inversion provides a very
+ satisfactory fit between synthetics and strong
+ motion data. We validated this model using records
+ from stations used in the slip inversion as well as
+ some which were not included. We also inverted for a
+ complementary model that fits the data just as well
+ but in which the initial stress was perfectly
+ uniform while rupture resistance was
+ heterogeneous. This demonstrates that inversion of
+ ground motion is nonunique.},
+}
+
+ at Article{Pollitz:Schwartz:2008,
+ author = {Pollitz, F.~F. and Schwartz, D.~P.},
+ title = {Probabilistic seismic hazard in the {San}
+ {Francisco} {Bay} area based on a simplified
+ viscoelastic cycle model of fault interactions},
+ journal = JGR-SE,
+ year = 2008,
+ volume = 113,
+ number = {B05409},
+ doi = {10.1029/2007JB005227},
+ abstract = {We construct a viscoelastic cycle model of plate
+ boundary deformation that includes the effect of
+ time-dependent interseismic strain accumulation,
+ coseismic strain release, and viscoelastic
+ relaxation of the substrate beneath the seismogenic
+ crust. For a given fault system, time-averaged
+ stress changes at any point (not on a fault) are
+ constrained to zero; that is, kinematic consistency
+ is enforced for the fault system. The dates of last
+ rupture, mean recurrence times, and the slip
+ distributions of the (assumed) repeating ruptures
+ are key inputs into the viscoelastic cycle
+ model. This simple formulation allows construction
+ of stress evolution at all points in the plate
+ boundary zone for purposes of probabilistic seismic
+ hazard analysis (PSHA). Stress evolution is combined
+ with a Coulomb failure stress threshold at
+ representative points on the fault segments to
+ estimate the times of their respective future
+ ruptures. In our PSHA we consider uncertainties in a
+ four-dimensional parameter space: the rupture
+ peridocities, slip distributions, time of last
+ earthquake (for prehistoric ruptures) and Coulomb
+ failure stress thresholds. We apply this methodology
+ to the San Francisco Bay region using a recently
+ determined fault chronology of area faults. Assuming
+ single-segment rupture scenarios, we find that
+ future rupture probabilities of area faults in the
+ coming decades are the highest for the southern
+ Hayward, Rodgers Creek, and northern Calaveras
+ faults. This conclusion is qualitatively similar to
+ that of Working Group on California Earthquake
+ Probabilities, but the probabilities derived here
+ are significantly higher. Given that fault rupture
+ probabilities are highly model-dependent, no single
+ model should be used to assess to time-dependent
+ rupture probabilities. We suggest that several
+ models, including the present one, be used in a
+ comprehensive PSHA methodology, as was done by
+ Working Group on California Earthquake
+ Probabilities.}
+}
+
+ at Article{Pollitz:etal:2001,
+ author = {Pollitz, F.~F. and Wicks, C. and Thatcher, W.},
+ title = {Mantle Flow Beneath a Continental Strike-Slip Fault:
+ {Postseismic} Deformation After the 1999 {Hector}
+ {Mine} Earthquake},
+ journal = {Science},
+ year = {2001},
+ volume = {293},
+ number = {5536},
+ pages = {1814--1818},
+ month = sep # {~7},
+ doi = {10.1126/science.1061361},
+ abstract = {Two recent large earthquakes in the Mojave Desert,
+ California—the magnitude 7.3 1992 Landers and
+ magnitude 7.1 1999 Hector Mine earthquakes—have each
+ been followed by elevated crustal strain rates over
+ periods of months and years. Geodetic data collected
+ after the Hector Mine earthquake exhibit a
+ temporally decaying horizontal velocity field and a
+ quadrant uplift pattern opposite to that expected
+ for localized shear beneath the earthquake
+ rupture. We interpret the origin of this accelerated
+ crustal deformation to be vigorous flow in the upper
+ mantle in response to the stress changes generated
+ by the earthquake. Our results suggest that
+ transient flow in the upper mantle is a fundamental
+ component of the earthquake cycle and that the lower
+ crust is a coherent stress guide coupling the upper
+ crust with the upper mantle},
+}
+
+ at Article{Reilinger:etal:2000,
+ author = {Reilinger, R.~E. and Ergintav, S. and Burgmann,
+ R. and McClusky, S. and Lenk, O. and Barka, A. and
+ Gurkan, O. and Hearn, L. and Feigle, K.~L. and
+ Cakmak, R. and Aktug, B. and Ozener, H. and Toksoz, M.~N.},
+ title = {Coseismic and Postseismic Fault Slip for the 17
+ {August} 1999, {M} = 7.5, {Izmit}, {Turkey}
+ Earthquake},
+ journal = {Science},
+ year = {2000},
+ volume = {289},
+ number = {5484},
+ pages = {1519-1524},
+ month = sep # {~1},
+ doi = {10.1126/science.289.5484.1519},
+ abstract = {We use Global Positioning System (GPS) observations
+ and elastic half-space models to estimate the
+ distribution of coseismic and postseismic slip along
+ the Izmit earthquake rupture. Our results indicate
+ that large coseismic slip (reaching 5.7 meters) is
+ confined to the upper 10 kilometers of the crust,
+ correlates with structurally distinct fault
+ segments, and is relatively low near the
+ hypocenter. Continued surface deformation during the
+ first 75 days after the earthquake indicates an
+ aseismic fault slip of as much as 0.43 meters on and
+ below the coseismic rupture. These observations are
+ consistent with a transition from unstable (episodic
+ large earthquakes) to stable (fault creep) sliding
+ at the base of the seismogenic zone.},
+}
+
+
+ at Article{Rundle:etal:2006,
+ author = {Rundle, P.~B. and Rundle, J.~B. and Tiampo,
+ K.~F. and Donnellan, A. and Turcotte, D.~L.},
+ title = {Virtual {California}: {Fault} model, friction
+ parameters, applications},
+ journal = PAGEOPH,
+ year = {2006},
+ volume = {163},
+ number = {9},
+ pages = {1819--1846},
+ doi = {10.1007/s00024-006-0099-x},
+ abstract = {Virtual California is a topologically realistic
+ simulation of the interacting earthquake faults in
+ California. Inputs to the model arise from field
+ data, and typically include realistic fault system
+ topologies, realistic long-term slip rates, and
+ realistic frictional parameters. Outputs from the
+ simulations include synthetic earthquake sequences
+ and space-time patterns together with associated
+ surface deformation and strain patterns that are
+ similar to those seen in nature. Here we describe
+ details of the data assimilation procedure we use to
+ construct the fault model and to assign frictional
+ properties. In addition, by analyzing the
+ statistical physics of the simulations, we can show
+ that that the frictional failure physics, which
+ includes a simple representation of a dynamic stress
+ intensity factor, leads to self-organization of the
+ statistical dynamics, and produces empirical
+ statistical distributions (probability density
+ functions:PDFs) that characterize the activity. One
+ type of distribution that can be constructed from
+ empirical measurements of simulation data are PDFs
+ for recurrence intervals on selected faults. Inputs
+ to simulation dynamics are based on the use of
+ time-averaged event-frequency data, and outputs
+ include PDFs representing measurements of dynamical
+ variability arising from fault interactions and
+ space-time correlations. As a first step for
+ productively using model-based methods for
+ earthquake forecasting, we propose that simulations
+ be used to generate the PDFs for recurrence
+ intervals instead of the usual practice of basing
+ the PDFs on standard forms (Gaussian, Log-Normal,
+ Pareto, Brownian Passage Time, and so
+ forth). Subsequent development of simulation-based
+ methods should include model enhancement, data
+ assimilation and data mining methods, and analysis
+ techniques based on statistical physics.},
+}
+
+ at Article{Ward:1992,
+ author = {Ward, S.~N.},
+ title = {An Application of Synthetic Seismicity in Earthquake
+ Statistics: {The} {Middle} {America} {Trench}},
+ journal = JGR-SE,
+ year = {1992},
+ volume = {97},
+ number = {B5},
+ pages = {6675--6682},
+ doi = {10.1029/92JB00236},
+ abstract = {This paper demonstrates how synthetic seismicity
+ calculations which are based on the concept of fault
+ segmentation and incorporate the physics of faulting
+ through static dislocation theory can improve
+ earthquake recurrence statistics and hone the
+ probabilities of hazard. Compared to forecasts
+ constructed from a handful of earthquake recurrence
+ intervals, forecasts constructed from synthetic
+ seismicity are more robust in that they embody
+ regional seismicity information over several units
+ of magnitude, they can extrapolate seismicity to
+ higher magnitudes than have actually been observed,
+ and they are formulated from a catalog which can be
+ extended as long as needed to be statistically
+ significant. Synthetic seismicity models can also be
+ used to judge the stability of common rate estimates
+ and the appropriateness of idealizations to the
+ earthquake cycle. I find that estimates of fault
+ slip rate are unbiased regardless of sampling
+ duration, while estimates of earthquake recurrence
+ time are strongly biased. Recurrence intervals
+ estimated from seismicity samples less than about 10
+ times the actual recurrence interval will almost
+ certainly be too short. For the Middle America
+ Trench (MAT), it would take 200 and 400 years of
+ monitoring to constrain slip and recurrence rates to
+ ± 10\%. Events M ≥ 6 have as much as a 60\%
+ probability of recurrence within 5 years due to the
+ clustering of small earthquakes in foreshocks and
+ aftershocks. This probability drops to less than 15%
+ for M ≥ 7 events. Increasing gap time generally
+ increases conditional probability of earthquake
+ occurrence, but the effect is weak. For the MAT, the
+ spread parameters of the best fitting lognormal or
+ Weibull distributions (≈0.75) are much larger than
+ the 0.21 intrinsic spread proposed in the
+ Nishenko-Buland hypothesis. Stress interaction
+ between fault segments disrupts time or slip
+ predictability and causes earthquake recurrence to
+ be far more aperiodic than has been suggested. },
+}
+
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